1. Nifty Performance in the Last 10 Budgets

Based on last 10 budget pre-post scenario for Nifty

Analyzing Nifty’s movement before and after the Union Budget over the past decade provides insights into market behaviour, in simple terms it looks like this:

2. Nifty Performance in the Last 10 Days

3. Nifty Predictions Based on the Current Chart (Possible Head & Shoulder pattern validation)

The chart indicates a formation of head and shoulders pattern, suggesting a bearish bias for this upcoming pre-budget session.

Key Price Levels for the above chart are:

Bearish Invalidation Above: 23,285-23300 range.
Resistance: Same as bullish invalidation range.
Support Levels: 23,060, 22,990, 22,795, 22,635, 22,430, 21,975 respectively.
Volume Analysis: Increasing volumes near support zones suggest possible short-covering or accumulation, and also gives another green flag for a valid “Head and Shoulder” pattern.

Technical Analysis:

The pattern suggests a potential downward move unless 23,285 is breached on the upside which invalidates the bearish bias.
If the neckline break holds, the next downside targets could be 22,635 and 21,975.
A bullish reversal above 23,285 could take the Nifty towards 24,152 and 24800.

4. Trading strategy for either side breakout:

Bullish Plan (If Nifty Breaks Above 23,285 resistance)

Entry: Above 23,285 with confirmation as a retest in 1 hour timeframe.
Target 1: 23,600
Target 2: 23900
Target 3: 24,152
Stop Loss: Below 23,000
Indicators to Watch: RSI above 50, breakout volume increase

Bearish Plan (If Nifty Fails to Sustain Above 23,285 and breaks 23000 support)

Entry: Below 23,000
Target 1: 22,794
Target 2: 22,635
Target 3: 22,440
Stop Loss: Above 23,300
Indicators to Watch: Breakdown with volume, RSI below 45

5. Summary

If 23,285 is broken on the upside, expect a bullish move.
If resistance holds, bearish targets remain open towards 22,635-21,975.
Budget volatility should be factored into risk management strategies.

Budget & Nifty: A Data-Driven Guide to Profitable Trading in 2025